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0Preview of Benfica vs Real Madrid at 03:00 on 18/02/2026. Predictions, expected lineups, expert analysis for the first leg of the play-off round to qualify for the Champions League round of 16 2025/26.
90-minute odds: 1/2 : 0
Total goals: 3
The match at Estadio da Luz serves as a replay of the thrilling encounter less than three weeks ago in the group stage. Under Jose Mourinho’s leadership, Benfica caused a sensation by defeating Real Madrid 4-2, narrowly securing the 24th place (the last spot for the play-off). The Portuguese club is currently in good form with four wins in their last five matches.
The momentum gained from their 2-1 comeback win against Santa Clara in the domestic league will give them confidence to try to upset the Spanish side again at home, where they always perform very energetically.
Benfica vs Real Madrid
On the other hand, Real Madrid travel to Portugal with the determination to avenge their previous loss. Although they finished 9th in the group stage (just missing the top 8), the 2-4 defeat against Benfica forced coach Alvaro Arbeloa’s squad to play two tense play-off matches. However, Real are in perfect form after a 4-1 demolition of Real Sociedad in La Liga to take the top spot.
Real Madrid have undoubtedly learned a harsh defensive lesson from their previous defeat, especially as they will welcome back key players.
Despite Benfica’s home advantage and Mourinho’s knack for facing his former club, Real Madrid’s superior class usually shines in knockout rounds. The visitors are likely to adopt a more cautious approach, making a high-scoring game less probable than before.
Benfica: The biggest absences are midfielders Fredrik Aursnes and Samuel Soares. Defender Alexander Bah has returned to training but is unlikely to start. Joao Veloso and Richard Rios remain doubtful.
Real Madrid: Great news as Kylian Mbappe has fully recovered from injury and is ready to start. However, Real face a defensive crisis with Raul Asencio suspended, Eder Militao out long-term, Rodrygo banned by UEFA, and Jude Bellingham still sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Benfica (4-2-3-1): Trubin; Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl; Barreiro, Barrenechea; Prestianni, Sudakov, Schjelderup; Pavlidis.
Real Madrid (4-3-3): Courtois; Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold; Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde; Vinicius, Mbappe, Guler.
14/02/26: Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica (Portuguese League)
09/02/26: Benfica 2-1 Alverca (Portuguese League)
02/02/26: Tondela 0-0 Benfica (Portuguese League)
29/01/26: Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid (Champions League)
26/01/26: Benfica 4-0 Estrela (Portuguese League)
15/02/26: Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
09/02/26: Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
01/02/26: Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
29/01/26: Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid (Champions League)
25/01/26: Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
29/01/26: Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid (Champions League)
28/07/12: Benfica 5-2 Real Madrid (Friendly)