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0The challenge for Italy's three teams in the Champions League knockout return matches is to stage successful comebacks after losing the first legs. This is quite difficult, making the early exit of Serie A a very real possibility.
1. Let's start with Inter Milan, who have the lightest burden as they only need to overturn a 1-3 loss to Bodo/Glimt from the first leg. Bodo/Glimt is one of the surprises in the Champions League qualifiers but is still considered inferior to Inter Milan.
So what happened in Norway last week? Bodo/Glimt clearly executed a game plan that caught Chivu's team off guard and unsettled them. One key factor in the Norwegian side's victory was the advantage of playing on the artificial turf at Aspmyra Stadium. Bodo/Glimt has produced shocking results at home this Champions League season, including a 3-1 win over Manchester City in the penultimate round a month ago. However, when playing away, coach Knutsen's team has been inconsistent. They can beat strong teams like Atletico Madrid but drop points against similar-level opponents like Slavia Prague. Playing at home on artificial turf boosts Bodo/Glimt's confidence and allows them to compete fiercely and fairly against higher-ranked teams.
For Inter Milan, the loss to Bodo/Glimt partly stemmed from the pitch, but it must also be acknowledged that Chivu’s aging squad struggled under the pressure of the unexpected style of play from the Norwegian side. Returning to their home ground, San Siro, in the second leg will help Inter regain their composure and the resilience typical of an Italian club. A comeback by Chivu’s team is entirely possible, though it will be a tough match. My personal view is that Inter Milan can score two goals within 90 minutes but will likely need extra time to complete the turnaround, as Bodo/Glimt have proven to be a formidable opponent.
It is far from easy for Inter Milan, Juventus, or Atalanta to stage comebacks
2. Compared to Inter Milan, the chances of the other two Serie A representatives, Juventus and Atalanta, overturning their deficits are much slimmer. Juventus appeared to show signs of improvement with a winning streak early this year, but consecutive Serie A losses to Inter and Como exposed ongoing issues under Spalletti. Additionally, their 2-5 defeat to Galatasaray in Turkey makes the second leg even more challenging. Galatasaray is no ordinary team, boasting many experienced continental players such as Osimhen, Icardi, Gundogan, and Leroy Sane.
Furthermore, defender Bremer is injured and his participation is uncertain, while Juan Cabal will miss the second leg due to a red card in the first match, which complicates Juventus’s efforts to contain Galatasaray’s striker Osimhen. It is highly unlikely Juventus will overturn the result in the return leg. Similarly, Atalanta’s chances remain slim despite only losing 0-2 to Dortmund in the first leg. Although they are in good form in Serie A, Atalanta have lost their last three Champions League matches. Without an outstanding performance in the second leg, it will be difficult for Atalanta to continue their European campaign.
Looking deeper, the overall performance of Serie A teams in this Champions League season has been very poor. Napoli, once expected to be Italy’s flagbearer on the continent, exited early after the qualifying rounds. The remaining three teams must now try to reverse significant first-leg deficits away from home. Personally, I believe it would not be surprising at all if Serie A finishes this knockout stage without any representatives left in the Champions League.