Bundesliga: Mainz vs. Köln! What does tactical dominance mean? Here are several reasons why I’m rooting for Mainz.

Today, let’s start with the Bundesliga match: Mainz vs. Köln!

Last season, Mainz and Köln met twice, and both results left Mainz supporters quite disappointed.

But Köln’s tactics have undergone a major shift this season. Will the results this time be different?

In the minds of fans, Köln has been a team that plays defensively with counterattacks and long aerial passes.

Yet this season, Köln has made a complete 180-degree transformation.

Yes, last season they indeed favored long balls because they had Modeste, formerly from Tianjin Tianhai.

Modeste was the top header scorer across the five major leagues last season. With such a powerful target man, it made sense to deliver more crosses for headers.

But this season, Modeste moved to Dortmund. Without such a strong focal point in the box, crossing and heading became less effective.

Therefore, they began shifting towards ground passing and possession play.

This season, their possession rate ranks 5th in the Bundesliga;

their number of passes is 7th in the Bundesliga;

almost all passes are on the ground rather than the high-ball style of last season. Out of their 19 goals this season, only 2 were headers, placing them near the bottom in the Bundesliga for headed goals.

This change will definitely please Mainz.

We’ve discussed Mainz’s tactics many times before. Since Svensson took over, they have become very skilled at playing against possession-based teams.

Their defensive approach is to segment the opponent into isolated parts, cutting off passing lanes between players, making it hard for possession teams to operate effectively.

Köln ranks 7th in Bundesliga for passes. How have the top 6 teams fared against Mainz?

Bayern has struggled the most; since Svensson’s appointment in 2021, Mainz has faced Bayern 4 times, surprisingly winning twice, drawing once, and losing only once — quite remarkable.

Leipzig also faced this version of Mainz 4 times, with the same record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss, just like Bayern.

Mönchengladbach fared worse, being completely dominated in 4 encounters.

Only Dortmund and Leverkusen have better records against Mainz.

Why are Dortmund and Leverkusen more successful against Mainz?

Because Mainz is fundamentally a modest club with relatively average individual talent.

When facing top forwards with blazing speed and strong physicality, they struggle to cope.

No need to mention Haaland — he’s almost unfair. Let’s talk about Leverkusen’s Frimpong.

Frimpong is currently the fastest player in the Bundesliga, and no Mainz player can match his pace.

Early this season, he scored twice against Mainz in one game. Look at how he plays against Mainz — with such a speed gap, how can they defend? It’s extremely tough.

But the good news is, Köln is also a modest club without top-tier players.

Here are Köln’s three fastest players; their quickest, Ljubičić, doesn’t even rank in the Bundesliga’s top 50 for speed.

In fact, in past matches against Mainz, Köln rarely managed to create effective passing penetrations or quick counterattacks.

Last season, Köln scored 4 goals against Mainz, 3 of which came from set pieces, and 2 were headers — basically relying on aerial bombardment.

Mainz’s aerial defense is indeed weak; no player ranks in the Bundesliga’s top 10 for aerial duels won.

But this season, Köln’s aerial threat has diminished significantly, and they no longer rely on high balls.

Those aerial threats Mainz used to fear so much may no longer exist from Köln.

Meanwhile, Köln’s current ground-based possession style happens to be exactly what Mainz prefers.

So although Mainz’s past struggles against Köln due to tactical mismatches may have dampened fans’ confidence,

this time, because of tactical reasons, the situation might be reversed.

Can Mainz satisfy over 30,000 home fans? What do you think? I’m hopeful they’ll earn three points.

Alright, for today’s other matches, I will still send text analyses in the evening. If anything is unclear, feel free to ask me. “Watch football, watch clearly,” see you then!

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